As the humanitarian impacts of Hurricane Melissa across Jamaica continue to clarify, multiple model vendors have independently confirmed that the insurance losses will likely sit towards the lower end of pre-landfall estimates with central estimates in the low single digit billions. Confirmation seen by Twelve Securis that multiple disaster risk financing instruments will however support the immediate post-event recovery demonstrates the positive role of insurance can play within disaster relief efforts.

As we approach the final weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season the National Hurricane Center is advising that no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days. Longer term forecast models similarly suggest the north Atlantic is unlikely to see any significant activity before the hurricane season officially ends at the end of November.

Tropical storm activity in November, and potentially beyond, is however notoriously unpredictable, with little correlation to the core seasons activity.  Ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic main development region and Gulf of Mexico are now well past their peaks; the Caribbean Sea however remains sufficiently warm to support the development of significant storms throughout November. With weak La Niña conditions having emerged in late September the possibility of further activity, while not expected, cannot be definitively ruled out.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

For professional or qualified investors only. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.