Tropical Storm Melissa, the thirteenth named storm of the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, 21 October. Melissa has been moving slowly westward with little change in intensity throughout this week, turning northwest on Wednesday evening / Thursday morning. Melissa is forecast to continue to track slowly northward during today before turning west over the weekend passing close to, potentially landfalling over, Jamaica.  

Melissa will move into a much more favourable environment of intensification south of Jamaica and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting a period of rapid intensification to a Category 4 storm. Intensification may continue early next week, and Melissa could potentially become the third Category 5 storm of the 2025 season. If Melissa reaches Category 5 this will be the first time since the infamous 2005 season for three Category 5 storms to form in a season. 

While longer term forecast for Melissa remains highly uncertain; most models and forecasts have Melissa tracking north-east across eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas. If Melissa remains a Category 4 or 5 storm impacts across the north-central Caribbean are likely to be significant, on par with some of the region’s worst historical events. While some forecast scenarios do suggest Florida or north-east US impacts these are considered low-probability outliers and no impacts from Melissa are expected in the US based on current forecasts. 

Twelve Securis acknowledges a potential impact on Jamaica’s World Bank Cat Bond and some parametric insurance exposures. The impact cannot be quantified at this stage, and we will reassess as more information becomes available. 

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly. 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions. 

With compliments, 

Twelve Securis 

For professional or qualified investors only. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.