The tropical Atlantic continues its quiet start to the season, with the National Hurricane Centre advising of no expected tropical cyclone activity over the next 7 days.

Mid- to late- August traditionally marks the transition from the early, and often quiet, phase of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to the active climatological peak of the season. For 2026 however, the expectation remains for well below average activity. The ‘El Niño’ ocean warming in the eastern Pacific continues to strengthen and is showing evidence of having strongly coupled to the atmosphere – a critical factor in linking the Pacific Ocean to the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear across the Atlantic in 2026 has been at record levels for July and is expected to remain strong throughout the season. Earlier this week Colorado State University confirmed their previous July forecast, with that team continuing to expect just a single major hurricane and only 50 units of accumulated cyclone energy during 2026.

Elsewhere, the Pacific Ocean remains active, with the storm activity across the Pacific running well above average so far this season. Typhoon Dolphin, a long-lived tropical storm that initially formed as a disturbance south of the Hawaiian Islands, is forecast to make landfall as a severe tropical storm (Category 1 Hurricane) in Zhejiang Province, China over the weekend. No material reinsurance or ILS impacts are expected.

In the western US, the Spokane Wildfire Complex in Washington State has become the second significant fire of 2026 following on from the Aspen Acres fire in Colorado in late June – early July. Both events have destroyed hundreds of structures and catastrophe events have been declared by the Property Claims Service. Insurance losses have the potential to approach USD 1billion for each event. These fires, while significant for those states (potentially the costliest on record in Washington), are unlikely to approach the levels of insurance losses seen in California between 2017 and 2025. No material reinsurance or ILS impacts are expected.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

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Twelve Securis

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