Multiple notable catastrophe events occurred over the past week, alongside developing tropical systems in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. While none are currently expected to materially impact ILS positions, they provide a timely reminder of potential catastrophe risk as we transition into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

On Monday, 10 August, a Mw7.4 earthquake struck Colombia, approx. 5km south of San José del Palmar. An “intermediate-depth” event, the earthquake was felt widely across western Colombia, with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimating more than one million people experienced severe shaking, levels at which significant damage to vulnerable structures would be expected. Damage assessments remain ongoing, but at least 50,000 homes are reported to have been damaged, including multiple total collapses, while reported fatalities are approaching 300. A multi-billion-dollar economic impact across Colombia is expected, however, given relatively low insurance penetration, the impact on the (re-) insurance market is likely to be materially lower. No ILS impacts are expected.

Between 9 and 12 August, a notable severe weather outbreak affected the U.S. Midwest, including at least nine tornadoes and a derecho across the Chicago, Illinois, metropolitan area. Initial estimates suggest a multi-billion-dollar insurance loss, potentially making this the tenth billion-dollar severe convective storm (SCS) event of the year. Year-to-date US SCS insured losses are likely to have exceeded USD 35bn. While significant, this remains well below the record annual loss levels observed between 2023-2025.

In the Atlantic, short lived Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the central Atlantic on 12 August before dissipating on 13 August. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring two tropical waves with the potential for development into tropical depressions or storms over the coming days. The first system, 92L, is likely to track into the Caribbean Sea over the weekend before encountering increasingly unfavourable environmental conditions and a likely dissipating. The second system, 94L, is expected to track farther north, passing northeast of the Caribbean Leeward Islands, and currently has greater potential for development. However, until a closed circulation forms and the system develops into a tropical storm, forecast confidence for next week remains low. The risk of 94L making US landfall as a significant storm currently remains very low.

In the Pacific, the active season continues with the formation of Tropical Storms Hernan and Lala. Lala is current forecast to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend as a weak Category 1 hurricane, although a direct landfall along the southern coast of Hawaii’s Big Island remains possible. The southern portion of the Big Island is sparsely populated and includes large areas of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. Potential impacts from Lala are expected to be dominated by heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and localised storm surges. No significant ILS impacts are expected.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.