As we near the end of the fifth week of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, overall activity across the Atlantic Basin remains subdued.

While low activity in June and early July is not unusual, the season to date ranks in the lower third of all seasons since 1950 based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Both named storms so far – Andrea (in the central Atlantic) and Barry (over the Yucatán Peninsula and Bay of Campeche) – were weak and short-lived.

These storms exemplify the type of systems likely underrepresented in early historical records due to limited observational capabilities, particularly the absence of satellite data. Though such storms have minimal relevance to the (re)insurance and ILS sectors, they still warrant careful interpretation in any statistical analysis involving seasonal activity.

A weak tropical storm or depression may develop off the northeast coast of Florida or Georgia over the weekend or early next week. However, it is not expected to have any significant impact, with the main hazards limited to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

Forecasts through next week and into mid-to-late July suggest continued low activity. The likelihood of higher-risk storms – particularly those forming in the main development region (MDR) near Africa and the tropical Atlantic – is expected to increase later in the month or in early August.

Looking further ahead to the peak of the season, as noted in previous updates, there is no strong correlation between a quiet start and overall seasonal intensity. Updated seasonal forecasts are expected soon, with Colorado State University scheduled to release their next update on 9 July.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.