Atlantic Hurricane Update 

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to show limited potential for significant activity until the end of July, with low activity potentially continuing through early August. 

Year to date the activity across the Atlantic is in the lower 3rd of all seasons since 1950 (by accumulated cyclone energy) and has had the slowest start since 2009.  

As noted in our previous posts, while a slow start to the season is not predictive of a quiet season overall, the continued lull in activity into the start of August does now suggest that 2025 is unlikely to become hyper-active. An average or slight above average season, as per the majority of pre-season forecasts, remains the most likely outcome, but the chance of significantly exceeding these forecasts is now reducing.  

Should the environment that has inhibited activity to date continue into late August / September, a concentration of activity late in the season does still carry significant US landfall risk. Storm genesis and tracks shift back towards US from the Main Development Region (MDR) later in the season, as seen with the famous storms of 2020, 2022 and 2024.  

All the above notwithstanding, some signs of the transition from the typical July lull into the August / September peak have already occurred. The National Hurricane Center identifying its first area of interest over the traditional MDR of the Atlantic late last week, and we may see areas of interest for potential development occur more frequently over this region over the coming weeks. 

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly. 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.