Cat Radar 30 July 2025 – Kamchatka Peninsula earthquake

Figure: Approximate travel time (in hours) of a tsunami generated offshore the Kamchatka Peninsula

Source: NOAA, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/ttt_coastal_locations/

At 23:25 UTC July 29, 2025 a moment magnitude scale (Mw) 8.8 earthquake occurred on seismically active Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone, where the Pacific plate subducts northwest beneath the North America plate.

The event is among the top ten largest earthquakes to occur globally since 1900 and the largest event to occur globally since the Mw 9.0 Tohoku event in 2011 as well as being the largest in the region since the Mw 9.0 Severo-Kurilsk earthquake on November 5, 1952.

According to the USGS the event is the latest in a sequence of earthquakes occurring offshore of the Kamchatka peninsula that began 10 days earlier. Preceding the Mw 8.8 earthquake were 50 Mw 5.0+ earthquakes, including a Mw 7.4 earthquake on 20 July 2025.

Immediately following the event the U.S. Tsunami Warning System issued multiple alerts for much of the Pacific Basin, estimating maximum wave heights of more than 3 meters along parts of Russia’s coastline; 1-3 meters for parts of Japan, Hawaii, Chile, and the Solomon Islands, and 0.3-1 meters for many other areas. Widespread evacuations have occurred including in Japan and Hawaii.

Report of shaking damages across the Kamchatka Peninsula currently appear to be moderate, although significant Tsunami flooding has occurred in some regions.

Tsunami waves take several hours to cross the Pacific Ocean and local bathymetry and geometry can amplify waves at the coast. Potential impacts across the Pacific Basin will continue all day today. Significant wave heights have been reported in Hawaii but so far there are limited reports of damages.

Based on current reports available any insurance impacts are expected to be minor and as of now we do not expect an impact on any ILS / cat bond position in the portfolios managed by Twelve Securis.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

With compliments,

Twelve Securis