Hurricane Erin and Atlantic Outlook

Hurricane Erin is accelerating north-eastward, moving away from the United States after making its closest approach to the coastline on Thursday as a Category 2 storm. Erin was an exceptional system, having reached rare Category 5 strength while passing north of the Caribbean before weakening into a very large, mid-category storm. Many observers noted that Erin’s size and structure more closely resembled a western Pacific typhoon than a typical Atlantic hurricane. The western Pacific is well known for producing some of the largest and most intense storms in recorded history. Erin’s offshore path, threading between the U.S. coastline and Bermuda, spared much of the eastern seaboard from potentially significant insurance losses.

Beyond Erin, the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring several disturbances (“Invests,” or investigative areas assessed for potential tropical storm development). At present, none pose a direct threat to the U.S.:

• Invest 90L – Located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, this system shows the highest likelihood of development over the next few days. Forecast models indicate a northward turn, with a track well east of Erin’s path last week.
• Invest 99L – Situated in the central tropical Atlantic, this disturbance has a lower probability of development in the near term. However, it is expected to follow a more southerly course, potentially moving across the southern Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. Twelve Securis will continue to monitor any changes in development potential or track that could influence future risk.

Over the next few weeks as we approach the climatological peak of the Hurricane season, Twelve Securis continue to expect a quieter than average period with an unfavourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (large-scale tropical weather phenomenon) helping to inhibit activity in early September.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

With compliments,

Twelve Securis