The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 91L) which is expected to become Tropical Strom Gabrielle in the coming days.

Forecasts for 91L are currently highly uncertain. Hurricane forecasts are significantly more uncertain prior to the formation of a defined centre of circulation when a clear center / ‘location’ of the storm can be identified. 91L is moving relatively slowly and while there is growing confidence that the storm will approach the Leeward Caribbean Islands and eastern Greater Antilles next week any forecast beyond that timeframe would be highly speculative. Potential impacts for the US or wider Caribbean are however viewed as a low probability.

Twelve Securis will keep clients informed as the forecasts for this system clarify over the coming days.

Alongside 91L the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) is monitoring Hurricane Kiko, currently a Category 3 storm having reached Category 4 status on Wednesday before weakening earlier today. Kiko is currently forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands early next week. The CPHC expects continued weakening with Kiko likely to be a weak Hurricane or Tropical Strom on approach to Hawaii. Exposure in Hawaii, with a few exceptions such as Kahului on Maui and Hilo on Big Island, is along the south and western coasts. Kiko is currently forecast to pass to the north of the Islands.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.