Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed on Wednesday, 17 September in the central tropical Atlantic. Gabrielle is currently being inhibited by upper-level wind shear but is expected to intensify to a Hurricane strength storm on Sunday as it tracks into a more favourable environment. Gabrielle is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and does not pose a threat to the US, Canada or other regions. 

The National Hurricane Center is also tracking a tropical wave currently moving from Africa into the eastern Atlantic, current with only a low probability (20% chance) of development over the next week. As mentioned in one of the previous Cat Radars, during late September, early October we will see a transition of tropical storm genesis from the ‘Main Development Region’ in the Tropical Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, with any storms that do form in the central topical Atlantic later in the season are less likely to threaten the US coastline. 

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly. 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.