The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) is tracking Tropical Storm Jerry, currently located northeast of the Northern Leeward Caribbean Islands, and a rare sub-tropical storm, Karen, northwest of the Azores. A sub-tropical storm is a non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

While Jerry is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend, according to the current information neither storm is expected to make landfall, and no notable impacts are expected.

Season to date, with eleven named storms, four hurricanes, three major hurricanes (two of which reached category 5 status), and an accumulated cyclone index close to 100 (once we add-on the expected contribution from Jerry), the 2025 season is tracking towards the lower end of the pre-season forecast ranges for stronger systems, with weaker events (named storms and hurricanes) falling well below the forecasted ranges.

The official end of the Atlantic hurricane season is 30 November, and while storms may still occur after this date, over the last 125 years no Major Hurricanes have made landfall on the US coastline in November, and only seven have made landfall after mid-October. All of those storms (1906,1910, 1921, 1926, 1950 (King), 2005 (Wilma), 2020 (Zeta)) had their origins in the Caribbean Sea and all, except for Zeta, made US landfall in central / southern Florida. Notable other late-season storms in October such as Hurricane Mitch (1998), the second deadliest Atlantic Hurricane on record with over 10,000 fatalities in Honduras and Nicaragua, as well as New-York – New Jersey’s Hurricane Sandy (2012), similarly owe their origin to the Caribbean Sea.

Unlike the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea has remained exceptionally warm during 2025, with ocean heat content currently approaching the record values seen in 2023 and 2024, however with no indication of activity over the next few days, the potential for the 2025 season to pass without any significant US impacts is increasing rapidly. Should 2025 pass without any further activity in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea, 2025 will have the lowest storm activity in the Caribbean since at least the 1960s.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

For professional or qualified investors only. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.