The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa, with a 40% chance of development over the next seven days. While there is currently general agreement across forecast models that this system will develop into a storm there is low probability of any US impacts. If a system does form, it is expected to turn north into the Atlantic later next week.

Last week marked the climatological peak of the hurricane season, a peak notable this year for a lack of activity across the Atlantic basin. 2025 is the only season during the recent active phase of hurricane history (which began in 1995) and the one of only three seasons (alongside 1992 and 1968) during the modern satellite era, not to have at least one storm during the peak of the season. The lull in activity has been caused by an unusually stable atmosphere, inhibiting the convection necessary for storms to form.

It is important to stress, as was clearly demonstrated last year, that a mid-season lull does not indicate low risk for the rest of the season. The latter half of the hurricane season sees a transition from the ‘Cape Verde’ type systems that originate off Africa and track across the Atlantic to threaten the eastern US coastline, to systems forming in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The northern Caribbean Sea is currently very warm with ocean heat content (a measure of the thermal energy stored in the ocean, and hence potentially available to intensify storms) at close to record level in the Gulf of Mexico and nearly on par with 2024 and 2023 in Caribbean seas. These ocean conditions coupled with the expected transition to a weak La-Niña in October suggest elevated US landfall risk for the late September and October. While these indicators point to elevated risk, actual outcomes can vary, and continuous monitoring remains essential.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.