Atlantic Hurricane Update

Tropical Storm Erin, the fifth named storm of the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season, formed west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday 11th August. Erin is expected to become the first hurricane of the season late today. Erin is tracking over warm waters and is expected to continue to intensify over the coming days. Erin is forecast to reach high category 3 or potentially category 4 status early next week.

Erin is forecast to track north of the northern Caribbean leeward Islands, before turning northwards late on Sunday / during Monday and then tracking between the east coast of the US and Bermuda mid-next week. Erin’s forecast has shifted slightly further westward, closer to the US coastline, over the past few days due to a slower than anticipated intensification and a more west/west-south position as Erin crossed the Atlantic. There does however remain a strong consensus from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), forecast models, and expert commentary, that Erin will stay far enough away from the US coastline to avoid any significant impacts. Twelve Securis will continue to monitor Erin and keep clients informed should the forecasts change materially.

Beyond Erin, over the next 2 weeks, continued African easterly wave activity has the potential to lead to further Atlantic storm development after which an unfavourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (large-scale tropical weather phenomenon) may help to inhibit activity in early September. Longer term, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Nina watch for late in the hurricane season, although expected to be relatively weak and brief, this may nevertheless support late season activity.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions. 

With compliments, 

Twelve Securis