Tropical Storm activity has returned to more expected levels for the peak of the season over the past weeks.

In the tropical Pacific, Typhoon Ragasa made landfall in Guangdong Province, China, south of Yangjiang on Wednesday, 24 September as a Category 2 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Ragasa formed as a tropical depression on 17 September becoming the eighteenth named storm, eighth typhoon, and first super typhoon of the northwest Pacific typhoon season having reached Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at its peak intensity. Ragasa’s track between the northern Philippines, Taiwan, and south of Hong Kong and Macau, with Tropical Storm force winds impacting all regions, resulted in widespread impacts and disruption across the region including significant flooding in both Hong Kong and Macau.

Significant impacts notwithstanding, Ragasa’s landfall to the west of the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, the wealthiest region of southern China, will have significantly mitigated any insurance impacts. Previous significant storms to impact the region include Typhoon Hato in 2017 and Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018. Both are reported as over USD 1 billion insurance losses (at the time of the event), while insurance impacts from Typhoon Ragasa are not anticipated to significantly exceed these levels.

In the Atlantic, Gabrielle, the seventh named storm, second hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, is currently a post-tropical cyclone crossing the Azores. Gabrielle will bring tropical storm conditions to the Azores, southern Portugal, and potentially northern Morocco, over the weekend and into early next week.

Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the central tropical Atlantic on Wednesday, 24 September. Humberto is forecast to intensify to become the third major Hurricane of the season. Humberto is expected to track between Bermuda and the US coastline early next week before recuring northeast in the north Atlantic. There is good confidence in Humberto’s forecast and while potential impacts in Bermuda remain possible, Humberto is – at the moment and it should remain – not a threat to the US.

An area of investigation (labelled 94L) located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands is expected to become tropical storm Imelda later today or over the weekend. Forecasts for this system are highly uncertain due to complex factors including the topography of the islands near its expected formation, the current environmental conditions, and the potential interactions with Humberto should that storm track further west than anticipated. Should the system form as anticipated a northward track offshore along the east coast of Florida, it is anticipated with potential for either landfall in northern Florida, Georgia, or the Carolinas, or recurving out to sea (more likely if Humberto exerts a strong influence on the system). Significant rainfall is anticipated over Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas in either scenario. Twelve Securis will closely monitor Imelda once the storm develops and advise clients in case decisive effects are expected.

Although some events are still developing, at the moment we do not expect any relevant impact from any of the events on the portfolios managed by Twelve Securis.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.