The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a tropical wave emerging from Africa with a low probability of development over the next week (around 20%). Any potential development of this system is expected to be slow, with forecast scenarios suggesting the system will likely remain over the open Atlantic with only moderate development. Twelve Securis will keep clients updated should forecasts change materially.

Beyond this potential system, atmospheric conditions are expected to remain unfavourable for tropical cyclone development over the coming weeks. Wind shear and dry air across the tropical Atlantic are expected to suppress tropical storm and Hurricane formation until early/mid-September.

Looking further ahead, forecasts for late September and October continue to suggest an active second half of the Hurricane season. Above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, combined with emerging weak La Niña conditions, are expected to support storm formation later into the season. Historically, late season hurricane activity is often concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and closer to the US coastline than during the peak of season.

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.