Atlantic Hurricane Update 

The first week of August has seen a notable increase in tropical activity across the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dexter formed off the east coast of the US (and drifting harmlessly north-east during the week), and multiple disturbances continue to be tracked by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for potential formation. None of these disturbances are expected to pose a threat to the US. 

Forecasts continue to suggest that we may see an increase in tropical activity mid-August, with possible short lull towards month end, before we move into the true peak of the season. Twelve Securis will continue to monitor all areas of potential activity. 

Updated, and final, seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic released by multiple agencies this week have confirmed the general expectation form earlier in the year for overall activity in 2025 to be in line with levels seen over the last ~30years, slightly below the average over 2016-2024, and significantly below the forecast made at the same time last year for the 2024 season. There continues to be a much higher consensus across forecast agencies, as well as types of forecasts, than seen in recent years. Seasonal forecasts made in August, just before the peak of the season are known to have good skill when evaluated over the last 20-40years. As we approach the peak of the season forecasters attention will shift to shorter timescale sub-seasonal signals and monitoring the expected activity for the upcoming days and weeks. 

Twelve Securis will continue to monitor both public forecasts and proprietary insights from research partners and will keep clients informed accordingly. 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.