El Niño, Climate-Conditioned Risk and Implications for Insurance-Linked Securities

The development of a strong El Niño is expected to be one of the most important drivers of global catastrophe risk during the second half of 2026 and into early 2027. Consistent with historical experience and current seasonal forecasts, El Niño is likely to suppress overall Atlantic hurricane activity relative to the active conditions that have characterised much of the period since 1995.

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Twelve Securis