The National Hurricane Center is currently advising that no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days. Strong wind shear across the southwest Atlantic and Caribbean, combined with the most significant Saharan dust outbreak of the year across the Atlantic’s main development region, is expected to suppress activity throughout July. A small possibility of development in the sub-tropical Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas next week may prove the exception to the generally quiet conditions across the Atlantic. However, any development is likely to remain weak and disorganised.

Updated forecasts for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season continue to be dominated by the strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. NOAA’s latest ENSO forecast has increased the probability of a very strong El Niño during the August-September-October period from 28% to 48%. Colorado State University has revised its seasonal forecast downwards. The latest outlook projects just one major hurricane during the 2026 season, with a seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of just 50. This is well below the 10-year average of 149 and would represent the lowest value since the notably inactive 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are monitoring three areas of potential development in the eastern Pacific. No landfall or significant impacts are currently expected, should any of these systems develop. In the western Pacific, Tropical Cyclone Bavi, the third typhoon-strength system of the season, is forecast to make landfall over the weekend in Zhejiang Province, China, south of Shanghai, with sustained winds of approximately 85mph (Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale). Although Bavi has weakened significantly from its peak intensity of 165mph (Category 5), it remains a very large system, and significant rainfall, flooding and associated impacts are expected across areas near and inland of the landfall location. No impacts to the ILS market are currently anticipated from Typhoon Bavi.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.

For professional or qualified investors only. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.