With the official commencement of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Twelve Securis is again issuing regular Cat Radars to primarily inform about storm activity in the relevant peril regions. Initially updates will be provided every second week, increasing to a weekly schedule during the peak of the season. In the event of significant developments, ad-hoc updates will be issued.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on 1 June, but so far, no storms have developed in the Atlantic Basin. This unusually quiet start is attributed to a combination of strong upper-level wind shear, widespread sinking air, and outbreaks of Saharan dust – all of which suppress the atmospheric convection necessary for tropical storm formation.

Current forecasts suggest that this low level of activity will persist through next week and may even extend into late June.

A slow start to the season is not unusual. Roughly half of all Atlantic hurricane seasons begin quietly, and early-season inactivity has no meaningful correlation with overall seasonal storm activity.

This delayed onset has not been limited to the Atlantic. Most Northern Hemisphere basins have experienced a similarly quiet start, with the notable exception of the Eastern Pacific. In the Western North Pacific, the first named storm of the 2025 season – Tropical Storm Wutip – only formed on 11 June. Wutip is forecast to make landfall in southern China as a severe tropical storm later today, Friday, 13 June.

Looking ahead, Colorado State University released an updated seasonal forecast earlier this week, maintaining their outlook for moderately above-average activity compared to recent decades. Notably, there is strong consensus across newly updated public and private forecasts reviewed by Twelve Securis. This level of agreement – stronger than in previous years – provides increased confidence in the predictions for the 2025 season.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.