The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring an area of potential tropical development in the central Atlantic, a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The likelihood of formation has fluctuated over the course of the week, with environmental conditions generally remaining unfavourable for further development. Regardless of whether the system develops, it is not expected to pose a risk to the US.

In the eastern and central Pacific, the elevated activity observed throughout the season is expected to continue. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three areas for potential development, with a high likelihood of at least one system forming over the coming days. Potential impacts could include the east coast of Mexico and Baja California. Twelve Securis will continue to monitor these systems closely as their development and potential trajectories become clearer.

Looking further ahead towards the end of September, El Niño is expected to remain a strong suppressing influence across the Atlantic. However, the unusually stable tropical atmosphere that has contributed to record-low activity so far this season may begin to give way to conditions more conducive to tropical cyclone development. Similar patterns were observed in 2024 and 2025, when relatively subdued peak-season activity was followed by significant late-season storms. As the season progresses, the typical area of tropical cyclone formation also shifts westwards towards the Caribbean Sea, potentially increasing landfall risk for storms that do develop. Twelve Securis will therefore continue to monitor closely for signs of a transition towards a more typical, or potentially more active, late-season risk environment.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur. 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.