The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two systems for potential tropical cyclone development: a low-pressure system in the central subtropical Atlantic, southeast of Bermuda, and a more northerly non-tropical system north of the Azores. Both systems currently have a low probability of developing into tropical storms and an even lower likelihood of causing any significant impacts on land.

Further ahead, we are now entering the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. However, the broader environment remains generally unfavourable for tropical cyclone development, with Saharan dust at more northerly latitudes off Africa, stable air across the eastern Atlantic, and El Niño-driven wind shear in the western Atlantic. Nevertheless, a series of strong African Easterly Waves – westward-propagating atmospheric disturbances over sub-Saharan Africa that can provide the initial seeds for hurricane formation in the tropical Atlantic – is expected to emerge early next week. Some model guidance indicates potential for development should a temporary window of more favourable conditions emerge within the otherwise hostile environment.

In contrast to the Atlantic, the Pacific remains active. Earlier this week, Hurricane Lala passed close to the southern coast of Hawaii’s Big Island, with damage concentrated in the Kaʻū district, primarily from flash flooding and landslides. The Property Claims Service has designated the event a catastrophe, with an initial estimate of insured losses expected in approximately two weeks. At this stage, insured losses are not expected to exceed a few hundred million dollars.

A second tropical system, currently designated Two-C, is expected to pass south of Hawaii over the weekend on a broadly similar track to Lala, although further from land. Heavy rainfall and the potential for further flooding remain the primary concerns. Further east, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two additional systems with a high potential for development.

To the west, Tropical Storm Saudel, currently located north of Guam, is forecast to intensify into a Category 4 storm before tracking across Japan’s southern Ryukyu Islands.

Beyond tropical storm activity, a Mw7.7 earthquake struck the Flores Sea in Indonesia earlier this week, north of East Nusa Tenggara. Significant damage has been reported, with thousands of people displaced and fatalities approaching 100. However, given the relatively low level of insurance penetration in the affected region, the impact on the (re-) insurance market is expected to be negligible.

The Flores earthquake is the 11th magnitude 7.0 or greater event recorded in 2026. While this level of seismic activity is not unusual (around 16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur globally in a typical year) the proximity of several of this year’s events to major population centres, their resulting humanitarian impacts, and the concentration of significant events between late June and August are nevertheless notable.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

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Twelve Securis

For professional or qualified investors only. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.