Cat Radar 27 January 2026 – U.S. Winter Storm

Since late last week and over the weekend, a significant winter storm and widespread cold weather outbreak has brought significant hazards (freezing conditions and heavy snowfall) across large areas of the U.S. and Canada.

A state of emergency has been declared in 23 states, with current reports suggesting 29 fatalities and long-duration power outages effecting more than 1 million people across the U.S.

The Property Claims Service have designated the event as a Catastrophe Event across Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Possibly Other Areas. The list of impacted states is likely increase over the coming days as further information emerges.

While a significant and impactful event, current information does not currently suggest last weekend’s outbreak will lead to insurance losses on par with the famous historic winter storm events such as the Storm Uri in 2021 and the 1993 ‘Storm of the Century’. These two events are the only winter storm events in the last 40 years where the normalised present-day value of insurance loss is estimated to exceed > USD 10bn for a single outbreak.

The December 2022 winter storm (known unofficially as winter storm Elliot) is potentially a more reliable, albeit likely conservative, benchmark. Elliot was estimated to have caused USD 7.7bn in insured losses across 38 states. Based on current information Elliots impacts were however more widespread and severe, with a larger number of fatalities and more people impacted by extended power outages.

For context over the last ~40 years, there are on average 4 PCS declared winter storm events per year with an average loss from each storm of just over USD 1bn (USD, normalised to 2026 property values and exposure).

There is no material impact expected on our portfolios from the recent U.S. winter storm. Indirectly, the event may contribute to a gradual erosion of aggregate limits in certain cat bonds, which could marginally reduce remaining protection for subsequent events in 2026. As a reminder, we remain underweight junior aggregate structures, which helps limit exposure to this type of loss accumulation.

Please note that this is an ongoing event, with millions of people still under extreme cold and cold weather advisories, and Twelve Securis will continue to monitor the situation closely.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

With compliments,

Twelve Securis

For professional or qualified investors only. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.