Japan Earthquake – 28 July 2026

On Tuesday 28 July 2026 at 16.27 local time (07:27 UTC) a magnitude M6.8 earthquake struck Kumamoto prefecture of Kyushu, with multiple weaker aftershocks continuing to be reported. Damage assessments are ongoing and further information is anticipated over the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency, which is responsible for detecting, analysing, and reporting earthquakes in Japan, reported a magnitude of 7.1 on the Mj scale, with seismic intensity of 7, the highest value on the Shindo scale, reported in the municipalities of Uki City and Hikawa Town.

The epicentre of the event is reported to have occurred approximately 5km south-west of the epicentre location of the M7.0 Kumamoto earthquake that impacted Kyushu in 2016. The 2016 event resulted in JPY 392 billion of reinsurance claims (as reported by the General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) / Japan Earthquake Reinsurance Co., Ltd. (JER)), with the total insurance impact estimated to have been USD 6.1 billion (as reported by PERILS AG). The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is listed as the second largest paid claim since the establishment of the Japanese earthquake insurance system.

Preliminary modelling from the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) indicates 27% probability of the economic losses exceeding USD 10 billion (version 1, created 25 minutes after the event). This is lower than the 52% probability assigned to the 2016 event by the USGS. Based on the first estimates, the impact of the event is anticipated to be lower than, or similar to, the 2016 event after accounting for changes in property and values across Kyushu.

Picture: Macroseismic Intensity Map from USGS

Source: https://www.usgs.gov/. As at 28 July 2026.

Japan is highly seismically active, with correspondingly resilient and well-designed property and infrastructure. Since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, five significant earthquakes with greater than USD 1 billion of insurance losses have impacted Japan. While the current event is not expected to have impacts anywhere near the level of Tohoku event, this event will likely rival many of the recent events, including the 2024 Noto event. Insurance impacts in the billions of dollars are anticipated.

Based on the currently available information we do not expect any significant loss impact on the cat bond market or any of our cat bond funds. With respect to our portfolios containing private ILS exposure, our preliminary internal assessment does not currently indicate any material impact. We will provide an update should these initial assessments change.

European Wildfires

Significant wildfires are currently affecting several regions across Europe.

The cumulative burnt area across the European Union in 2026 is approximately five times the long-term average for 2006–2025, while France has already exceeded its maximum annual burnt area recorded over the past 30 years. Two notable outbreaks – one west of Madrid, Spain and the other west of Bordeaux along the Côte d’Argent – have been the focus on significant media attention. While both fires are ongoing, neither is currently directly threatening a major urban centre.

As of today, the primary impact of the fires has been related to disruption with over 300,000 people evacuated from their homes, as well as health and environmental impacts.

The direct destruction of property has, however, remained relatively limited, with current reports of several hundred homes destroyed in Gironde, France. As such, the direct property insurance impact of these events, which is most relevant to property (re)insurance, is expected to be limited and ILS impacts are expected to be minimal.

Containment efforts and damage assessments are ongoing and these figures may rise.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

With compliments,

Twelve Securis