Early on Tuesday, 1 September, Tropical Storm Edouard formed over the northern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida-Alabama border from an area of low pressure and associated weak convection. Edouard tracked westward offshore along the northern Gulf Coast before making landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at 14:20 local time, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Edouard was a compact storm at landfall. While tropical storm-force winds and heavy rainfall affected parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, only limited damage has been reported. The potential impact on our portfolios remains uncertain at this stage. We will continue to monitor developments closely and provide further updates as the situation evolves.

With no further Atlantic storm activity expected over the coming weeks, 2026 is increasingly likely to become the third consecutive Atlantic hurricane season with no significant storm activity around the climatological peak of the season. Unlike 2024 and 2025, however, when significant storms developed outside the traditional peak period, 2026 has yet to produce a hurricane-strength storm. With El Niño continuing to strengthen across the tropical Pacific, and the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) this week highlighting its potential global impacts, conditions are expected to remain generally unfavourable for Atlantic tropical cyclone development. As a result, the likelihood of the 2026 season maintaining its unusually low level of activity remains elevated.

In contrast, the tropical Pacific remains active, with three hurricane-strength storms currently present in the eastern and central Pacific, alongside a weaker tropical storm in the western Pacific. The most significant system is Hurricane Lowell, which previously reached Category 5 intensity. Lowell is currently forecast to turn northward over the weekend and pass west of Hawaii on Monday, while weakening to Category 3 or strong Category 2 intensity. However, uncertainty around Lowell’s track remains, and a landfall on Kauaʻi or potentially Oʻahu, including the Honolulu area, cannot yet be ruled out. Should such a scenario materialise, there would be notable parallels with Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which followed a broadly similar track before making landfall on Kauaʻi as a Category 4 hurricane. Iniki caused an estimated USD 1.6 billion in insured losses at the time. Adjusting for changes in property values and exposure since 1992, a comparable event today could result in insured losses well into the double-digit billions.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.