With the official commencement of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Twelve Securis is again issuing regular Cat Radars to primarily inform about storm activity across key peril regions. Updates will initially be published on a bi-weekly basis, transitioning to weekly reports during the peak months of the season. In the event of significant developments, ad-hoc updates will be issued.  

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on 1 June. While no tropical activity has developed so far, current forecasts indicate that conditions may become more favourable for storm formation in the western Gulf of Mexico later this month. A quiet start to the season is not unusual and occurs in approximately half of all hurricane seasons. Even if an early-season storm does develop, relatively cooler ocean temperatures typically limit June systems, resulting in weaker and shorter-lived storms. Consequently, risks during this period are generally skewed toward flooding and rainfall-related losses rather than severe wind impacts. Historically, only around 20% of June storms reach hurricane intensity, and the likelihood of a significant event affecting ILS investors during the first month of the season remains low. 

In contrast, and in line with seasonal forecasts, the Pacific basin has already experienced notable tropical cyclone activity. Typhoon Sinlaku earlier in the season and Typhoon Jangmi more recently in the western Pacific, together with Tropical Cyclone Amanda (currently located well offshore in the eastern-central Pacific) and two additional systems with development potential near the Central American coastline, are setting the pace for what could become an active Pacific typhoon season. Nevertheless, ILS investor exposure to Pacific storm risk remains substantially lower than exposure to Atlantic hurricanes, particularly within cat bond-focused portfolios. 

Looking ahead, expectations for the remainder of the Atlantic season continue to be shaped by the evolving El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In May, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) lowered its seasonal forecast, while NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) currently assigns a 55% probability to a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. According to NOAA’s latest ENSO update, issued on 1 June, ENSO-neutral conditions persist; however, El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months, with an approx. 82% probability during the May–July period. NOAA is scheduled to release its next ENSO update next week, while Colorado State University will publish an updated seasonal hurricane forecast on 10 June. 

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur. 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions. 

With compliments, 

Twelve Securis 

For professional or qualified investors only. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.